The Himalayan Passes: Climate Changes and Beyond

The highest mountain range in the world, which has over 30 peaks which are over 7315 metres high, is also experiencing climate change and we are not talking about it enough! It is very quintessential to understand that climate change in Himalayas is an event of great significance which shows the precarious conditions we may face in the future with regard to adapting to climate change.

This severity of the condition and how important it is for us to talk about climate change in Himalayas can be understood from the fact that Hindu Kush Himalayas has the largest area of permanent ice cover outside the north and south pole. It is also essential to understand that Himalayan Mountain Range spans across eight countries of the Asian continent and is the source of ten major river systems providing water for drinking, irrigation and power for over 1.3 billion people in Asia—which is nearly 20% of the world’s population. Further the rivers that generate from the Himalayas provide for about 50% of the total utilisable surface water resources of India. The situation is further worsened by the fact that the Himalayas are warming at a faster rate than the Indian land mass. These changes complicates the life of the 240 million people who live amongst its crags and peaks.

Ministry of Earth Sciences’ points out various observation with regard to climate change in the Himalayan region. The reports says:

• The Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau have experienced substantial warming during the twentieth century. The warming trend has been particularly pronounced over the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) which is the largest area of permanent ice cover outside the North and South Poles.

• The annual mean surface-air-temperature in the HKH increased at a rate of about 0.1 °C per decade during 1901–2014, with a faster rate of warming of about 0.2 °C per decade during 1951–2014, which is attributable to anthropogenic climate change (High confidence). Additionally, high elevations (> 4000 m) of the Tibetan Plateau have experienced stronger warming, as high as 0.5 ° C per decade, which is commonly referred to as elevation-dependent warming (EDW).

• Several areas in the HKH have exhibited declining trends in snowfall and retreating glaciers during the recent decades. Parts of the high-elevation Karakoram Himalayas have, in contrast, experienced increased wintertime precipitation in association with enhanced amplitude variations of synoptic western disturbances (Medium confidence).

• Future climate projections suggest warming of the HKH region in the range of 2.6–4.6 °C by the end of the twenty-first century. While future projections indicate significant decrease of snowfall in several regions of the HKH, high-elevation locations (> 4000 m) in the Karakoram Himalayas are projected to experience an increase in annual precipitation during the twenty-first century.

The report goes on to make significant observations with regard to various future projections in the Hindu Kush Himalayas. These are:

• Extreme warm days and extreme cold nights will become warmer in the Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH).

• There is an enhanced likelihood of occurrence of extreme precipitation over the HKH region.

• Projections alsi indicate an increase in annual precipitation, but decrease in snowfall over the region by the end of 21st Century.

These changes will have a huge impact on the population of the Indian sub-continent. Farmers growing apples or grains on steep mountain slopes will have to nudge their orchards higher upslope, chasing the cool nights and seasons necessary for their crops because of the rise in temperatures. Simultaneously, Himalayan rivers are also responsible for ensuring the energy security of the country, due to their role in supporting the production of both hydro as well as thermal electricity through dams/ power plants located in the Indo-Gangetic plains. The Energy and Research Institute estimates that almost 1/3rd of the country's electricity production capacity is located in the Indo-Gangetic plains, and any variability in the flow pattern of Himalayan rivers can have far-reaching consequences for the energy security of the India. A report by Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), an intergovernmental organisation set up by the eight countries of the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region, estimates that if global action against climate risks falters, as much as 90% of snow in the region may disappear.

More melt means more water pools in lakes (the number of lakes have doubled across the Nepal Himalayas) on top of the glaciers or at their lower snouts. However the increase in the number of lakes in not that good a news because lakes are often growing so fast and hold so much water that they can—and have—burst through the rock-piles holding them back, resulting in devastating outburst floods. It is clear that there cannot be one single best possible set of actions or a single pathway for decision makers to minimise the challenges and seize the opportunities for the HKH in keeping with the long-term goal of prosperity. Multiple actions will need to be followed simultaneously.

Mountains know secrets we need to learn. That it might take time, it might be hard, but if you just hold on long enough, you will find the strength to rise up. Therefore it is crucial that visioning and strategic planning start now to enable the implementation of actions beyond 2030 by decision makers. To decide on the choice of pathways, there is need for prior analysis, understanding, and recognition of the HKH’s unique and emerging opportunities and challenges.

Reference/ Further Readings:

Sharma E et al (2019) Introduction to the Hindu Kush Himalaya assessment. In: Wester P, Mishra A, Mukherji A, Shrestha AB (eds) The Hindu Kush Himalaya assessment—mountains, climate change, sustainability and people. Springer-Nature, Switzerland

Bookhagen B, Burbank DW (2006) Topography, relief, and TRMM-derived rainfall variations along the Himalaya. Geophys Res Lett 33(8)

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/02/himalaya-mountain-climate-change-report/

https://www.teriin.org/policy-brief/climate-change-impacts-himalayan-glaciers-and-implications-energy-security-india

International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development report titled The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment: Mountains, Climate Change, Sustainability and People

Know more:

This story is part of a five part series on the Climate Change Impact Assessment Report by the Ministry of Earth Sciences.

The other parts can be found here, here, here, and here.

Do more:

Have a look at this piece about the report, or reach out to us at submissions.scalesandstates@gmail.com for feedback, queries, and sharing your thoughts.