A Recipe for Disaster: Extreme Storms, Climate Change and EIA 2020

Over the last few decades, India has faced the wrath of many natural calamities, such as cyclones, floods, thunderstorms and earthquakes, causing severe loss to life and property. The Ministry of Earth Sciences recently published a report ‘Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region’, the first of its kind, which studies the changes in weather and related phenomena caused due to climate change and global warming in great detail.

As per this report, extreme storms, which are defined as high-impact weather occurrence associated with cyclonic storms, thunderstorms, and short-lived cloudbursts that can produce intense rainfall amounts, have undergone major changes over the years. On the other hand, while this report has highlighted the role of climate change in changing weather patterns, the recently proposed amendments in the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) guidelines are facing criticism by environmentalists, who strongly believe that they can be misused and might end up causing major environmental damage under the guise of ‘development’.

Tropical Cyclones

A long coastline of about 7,516 km of flat coastal terrain, shallow continental shelf, high population density, geographical location, and physiological features of its coastal areas, makes India, and its people, especially those living in coastal areas, extremely vulnerable to cyclones and related hazards.

According to the report, there is a rise in severe category Tropical Cyclones by 49% (relative to pre-1950 period) in the Bay of Bengal region, and 52% in the Arabian Sea region. 6 out of 11 tropical cyclones formed in the Arabian Sea region reached greater severity during the 2000-2018 period. The report attributes this rise in intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones to anthropogenic global warming, doubling of carbon dioxide, and higher sea-surface temperatures. Further, climate change signal to changes in sea surface temperatures and associated cyclonic activity, might emerge sooner in the Indian Ocean as compared to other basins. 

Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms over the Indian subcontinent have reduced by 34% in the post-1980 period, which is suggestively attributed to reduction in rainfall activity and  the moisture amount due to fall in the frequency of monsoon depressions, and enhanced intensities of natural variability climate drivers. However, it is generally correlated that the temperature increase associated with global climate change will lead to increased thunderstorm intensity and associated heavy precipitation events.

Interestingly, the report also notes that during the 1978-2012 period, West Bengal, Odisha, Bihar, Assam, and Jharkhand were the worst hit of thunderstorms, in terms of fatalities, injuries, and casualties. West Bengal experienced the most intense thunderstorm events and the maximum casualties during this period. Maharashtra and Kerala experienced 147 and 79 events, respectively, but the fatalities and casualties were comparatively less in these states. Delhi experienced only seven events with significant injuries and casualties. More recently, as of 26th June 2020, 107 people were killed in a single day by lightning strikes during thunderstorms, across several districts of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. 

Cloudbursts

Cloudburst is a severe weather outbreak feature commonly seen along the southern Himalayan slopes of the Indian subcontinent. These are associated with thunderstorms, where strong updrafts from intense vortices on smaller scale tend to hold up a large amount of water, and upon sudden cessation, results in catastrophic rainfall in a short period of time, concentrated over a limited geographical area.

It is observed that there is a significant increase in these events along the Himalayan foothills (1 per decade) and west coast of India (5 per decade). Studies also suggests that the frequency of cloudburst events in the western Himalayan region has been continuously rising due to faster evaporation rates from glacial lakes at high altitudes, because of global warming.

EIA 2020

It is important to understand that, while such events are often catastrophic in themselves, they become disasters when there is a lack of adequate preventive measures and systems in place to minimise the damage. For example, unsustainable and unchecked development in vulnerable regions will only increase the damage a natural calamity might end up causing, leading to greater losses and casualties.

Nonetheless, the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change has proposed a draft Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) notification 2020, which is considered by many environmentalists to be a major step back in the war against environmental destruction and climate change. 

Some of the concerning suggestions include the reduction in time for the public to submit their responses during a public hearing with respect to environmental clearing; reduction in the number of reports, stating that the concerned business is running as per the given permissions, to be filed; and classification of certain projects as ‘strategic’ by the central government, limiting the information placed in public domains about the same. The new draft also allows giving post facto approval to various projects. 

Essentially, this means that the clearances for projects can be awarded even if they have started construction or have been in running phase, without securing environmental clearances. This is in direct violation of the precautionary principle of environmental sustainability, which emphasises on practicing caution before leaping into new innovative ventures that might have disastrous collateral damage. In other words, the damage caused to the environment is usually irreversible, and so, it must be accurately estimated, assessed, and factored in, before a decision is taken.

While there is medium confidence in attributing the increase in intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones to anthropogenic global warming, the response of severe convective storms to changing climate is still open-ended and a rapidly growing area of research around the world. However, considering the devastation these calamities leave behind, negligence due to insufficient scientific proof is not worth the risk.

It is high time we understand that climate change is aided by everyday greed, negligence, and recklessness. It can be avoided at a much lesser cost than the damage to life and property brought about by the consequent natural disasters. When it comes to curbing climate change, time is of the essence, and not only do we need to take individual responsibility, but also ask for appropriate policy decisions and stricter implementation.

by - Diya Srivastva

Know more:

This story is part of a four part series on the Climate Change Impact Assessment Report by the Ministry of Earth Sciences.

The other parts can be found here, here, here, and here.

Do more:

Have a look at this piece about the report, or reach out to us at submissions.scalesandstates@gmail.com for feedback, queries, and sharing your thoughts.